It's Going To Be A While

Everyone is talking about when things will "get back to normal." Based on their context, they seem to be talking about social distancing being eliminated or "non-essential" businesses reopening. Unfortunately, those aren't even close to what's required for us to get back to normal. In fact, we may never return to the normal we used to know.

People are anxious to return to their life the way it was before this crisis. Unfortunately, merely ending the restrictions isn't going to make that happen. Many people are out of work. The government's stimulus plan isn't going to replace the income they are losing - not even close if this continues for another month or more. The damage done to some companies is going to be too much for them to overcome and they will either never reopen or won't return to their pre-COVID-19 status. Many of their employees won't have jobs to go back to.

Also, just because restaurants and movie theaters and stores reopen doesn't mean their customer base can afford to jump back to the level of discretionary spending they enjoyed before the crisis hit. Those businesses won't be able to afford to keep the same staffing levels they had before if their customers can't afford what they are offering. Unemployment numbers are likely to be affected for a long time.

We can't forget that the $2,000,000,000,000 (let all those zeros sink in for a moment) government stimulus plan isn't free. We're going to be paying for that for a very long time, even without the pork that our elected leaders allowed to bloat the bill. Ultimately, the only way the government generates revenue is to tax its people. That "free money" is going to cost a whole lot for a very long time. The interest alone on that money could cripple an economy already reeling from the effects of the pandemic. We are all going to pay for it eventually.

I'm one of the "lucky" ones. My company is considered essential so I still go to work each day and collect a paycheck every two weeks. That could change in a heartbeat, though, if I or one of my co-workers get sick. Having one or two people quarantined out of a company of eight people could quickly bring us to our knees.

Until then, I just keep praying for those people searching for effective treatments and vaccines. I will keep praying for the healthy to stay healthy and the sick to recover.

Like the ripples emanating from a stone hitting the water, the ripples from the Corona Virus are going to continue spreading over a great area until they eventually weaken and largely disappear. There are going to be a lot of businesses; small, medium and large, that are impacted for a very, very long time.

Maybe forever.